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Blumenau vs FC Porto — Catarinense - 2 2022

Blumenau
Blumenau
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Porto
FC Porto
6/21/2025Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 4Complexo Esportivo Bernardo Wolfgang Werner

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Blumenau83%
×Draw11%
FC Porto6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blumenau
3.10
FC Porto
0.72

Blumenau creates 331% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Blumenau
1.71
FC Porto
0.25

allows per match

Blumenau
1.19
FC Porto
4.50

finishing

Blumenau+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blumenau ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Blumenau or draw
94%
Blumenau or FC Porto
89%
Draw or FC Porto
17%

Winning margin

Blumenau wins by 2+
65%
FC Porto wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Blumenau 1+ goals
95%
Blumenau 2+ goals
81%
Blumenau 3+ goals
58%
FC Porto 1+ goals
51%
FC Porto 2+ goals
16%
FC Porto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blumenau (draw refunded)
94%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blumenau at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

FC Porto away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blumenau attack 1.71 + FC Porto defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.10

FC Porto attack 0.25 + Blumenau defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Blumenau scores more
83%
level
11%
FC Porto scores more
6%

Blumenau at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Blumenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blumenau vs FC Porto

Blumenau beat FC Porto 6-0 in Catarinense - 2 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo Bernardo Wolfgang Werner in Blumenau, Santa Catarina.