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Blumenau vs Caravaggio — Catarinense - 2 2022

Blumenau
Blumenau
FT
3 – 1
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
6/26/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 5Estádio Ervin Blaese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Blumenau45%
×Draw25%
Caravaggio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blumenau
1.52
Caravaggio
1.18

Blumenau creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Blumenau
1.71
Caravaggio
1.17

allows per match

Blumenau
1.19
Caravaggio
1.33

finishing

Blumenau+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blumenau ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Blumenau or draw
70%
Blumenau or Caravaggio
75%
Draw or Caravaggio
55%

Winning margin

Blumenau wins by 2+
22%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blumenau 1+ goals
78%
Blumenau 2+ goals
45%
Blumenau 3+ goals
20%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
69%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
33%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blumenau (draw refunded)
60%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blumenau at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blumenau attack 1.71 + Caravaggio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Caravaggio attack 1.17 + Blumenau defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blumenau scores more
45%
level
25%
Caravaggio scores more
30%

Blumenau at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blumenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Blumenau 3–1 Caravaggio

Blumenau beat Caravaggio 3-1 in Catarinense - 2 on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Ervin Blaese in Indaial, Santa Catarina.