Blue Goose 2–3 Louisiana Krewe: Result & Stats

Blue Goose

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Louisiana Krewe

7/3/2022

USL League Two · Round 58Mayo Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blue Goose17%

×Draw17%

Louisiana Krewe66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue GooseExpected goals in this matchLouisiana Krewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.81

Blue Goose

1.41

Louisiana Krewe

2.81

Louisiana Krewe creates 99% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

1.11

creates per match

2.18

3.44

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Blue Goose

1.11

Louisiana Krewe

2.18

allows per match

Blue Goose

3.44

Louisiana Krewe

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Goose+0.00on par

Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Goose ↓

Louisiana Krewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Blue Goose or draw

34%

Blue Goose or Louisiana Krewe

83%

Draw or Louisiana Krewe

83%

Winning margin

Blue Goose wins by 2+

7%

Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Blue Goose 1+ goals

76%

Blue Goose 2+ goals

41%

Blue Goose 3+ goals

17%

Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals

94%

Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals

76%

Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Blue Goose (draw refunded)

21%

Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Goose at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

Louisiana Krewe away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.18 + Blue Goose defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Blue Goose scores more

17%

level

17%

Louisiana Krewe scores more

66%

Louisiana Krewe at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Louisiana Krewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Blue Goose 2–3 Louisiana Krewe

Louisiana Krewe beat Blue Goose 3-2 in USL League Two on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Mayo Field in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Blue Goose vs Louisiana Krewe — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Blue Goose 2–3 Louisiana Krewe