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Blue Goose vs Little Rock Rangers — USL League Two 2018

Blue Goose
Blue Goose
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Little Rock Rangers
Little Rock Rangers
6/30/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 14Airline High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blue Goose13%
×Draw17%
Little Rock Rangers70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Goose
1.04
Little Rock Rangers
2.56

Little Rock Rangers creates 146% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

creates per match

Blue Goose
1.11
Little Rock Rangers
1.69

allows per match

Blue Goose
3.44
Little Rock Rangers
0.97

finishing

Blue Goose+0.00on par
Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Goose ↓

Little Rock Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Blue Goose or draw
30%
Blue Goose or Little Rock Rangers
83%
Draw or Little Rock Rangers
87%

Winning margin

Blue Goose wins by 2+
5%
Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Blue Goose 1+ goals
65%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
28%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
9%
Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals
92%
Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals
72%
Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Blue Goose (draw refunded)
16%
Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Goose at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

Little Rock Rangers away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Little Rock Rangers attack 1.69 + Blue Goose defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Blue Goose scores more
13%
level
17%
Little Rock Rangers scores more
70%

Little Rock Rangers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Blue Goose 0–5 Little Rock Rangers

Little Rock Rangers beat Blue Goose 5-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Airline High School Stadium in Bossier City, Louisiana.