Blue Eagles 5–0 TN Stars: Result & Stats

Blue Eagles

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

TN Stars

11/16/2022

Super League · Round 24Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Blue Eagles65%

×Draw22%

TN Stars14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue EaglesExpected goals in this matchTN Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.70

Blue Eagles

1.84

TN Stars

0.70

Blue Eagles creates 163% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 32 away

1.46

creates per match

0.59

0.81

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Blue Eagles

1.46

TN Stars

0.59

allows per match

Blue Eagles

0.81

TN Stars

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

TN Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Eagles ↓

TN Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blue Eagles or draw

86%

Blue Eagles or TN Stars

78%

Draw or TN Stars

35%

Winning margin

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

38%

TN Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

84%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

55%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

28%

TN Stars 1+ goals

50%

TN Stars 2+ goals

16%

TN Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

83%

TN Stars (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

TN Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Eagles attack 1.46 + TN Stars defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.84

TN Stars attack 0.59 + Blue Eagles defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Blue Eagles scores more

65%

level

22%

TN Stars scores more

14%

Blue Eagles at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff