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Blue Eagles vs Mighty Tigers — Super League 2026

Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
12/24/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Blue Eagles53%
×Draw28%
Mighty Tigers19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Eagles
1.35
Mighty Tigers
0.67

Blue Eagles creates 101% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 76 away

creates per match

Blue Eagles
1.46
Mighty Tigers
0.53

allows per match

Blue Eagles
0.81
Mighty Tigers
1.24

finishing

Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Eagles ↓

Mighty Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Blue Eagles or draw
81%
Blue Eagles or Mighty Tigers
72%
Draw or Mighty Tigers
47%

Winning margin

Blue Eagles wins by 2+
26%
Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Blue Eagles 1+ goals
74%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
39%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
15%
Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
49%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
15%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
74%
Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.81 · 68 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Eagles attack 1.46 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + Blue Eagles defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blue Eagles scores more
53%
level
28%
Mighty Tigers scores more
19%

Blue Eagles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blue Eagles vs Mighty Tigers

Blue Eagles beat Mighty Tigers 1-0 in Super League on December 24, 2025.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.