Blue Eagles 3–1 Dwangwa United: Result & Stats

Blue Eagles

FT

3 – 1

Dwangwa United

8/10/2019

Super League · Round 1Nankhaka Stadium (Lilongwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blue Eagles61%

×Draw23%

Dwangwa United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue EaglesExpected goals in this matchDwangwa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.74

Blue Eagles

1.73

Dwangwa United

0.74

Blue Eagles creates 134% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 3 away

1.45

creates per match

0.67

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Blue Eagles

1.45

Dwangwa United

0.67

allows per match

Blue Eagles

0.82

Dwangwa United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Dwangwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Eagles ↓

Dwangwa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blue Eagles or draw

84%

Blue Eagles or Dwangwa United

77%

Draw or Dwangwa United

39%

Winning margin

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

35%

Dwangwa United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

82%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

52%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

25%

Dwangwa United 1+ goals

52%

Dwangwa United 2+ goals

17%

Dwangwa United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

80%

Dwangwa United (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Dwangwa United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Eagles attack 1.45 + Dwangwa United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dwangwa United attack 0.67 + Blue Eagles defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Blue Eagles scores more

61%

level

23%

Dwangwa United scores more

16%

Blue Eagles at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff