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Blue Eagles vs Bangwe All Stars — Super League 2026

Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bangwe All Stars
Bangwe All Stars
8/13/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Nankhaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Blue Eagles54%
×Draw27%
Bangwe All Stars20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Eagles
1.46
Bangwe All Stars
0.77

Blue Eagles creates 90% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

Blue Eagles
1.45
Bangwe All Stars
0.73

allows per match

Blue Eagles
0.82
Bangwe All Stars
1.47

finishing

Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Eagles ↓

Bangwe All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blue Eagles or draw
80%
Blue Eagles or Bangwe All Stars
73%
Draw or Bangwe All Stars
46%

Winning margin

Blue Eagles wins by 2+
27%
Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Blue Eagles 1+ goals
77%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
43%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
18%
Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals
54%
Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals
18%
Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
73%
Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Eagles at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Eagles attack 1.45 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Blue Eagles defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Blue Eagles scores more
54%
level
27%
Bangwe All Stars scores more
20%

Blue Eagles at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blue Eagles vs Bangwe All Stars

Blue Eagles and Bangwe All Stars drew 2-2 in Super League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Nankhaka Stadium in Lilongwe.