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Blue Boys Muhlenbach vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
CANC
00:00
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
5/17/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 26Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach20%
×Draw21%
F91 Dudelange58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.12
F91 Dudelange
2.04

F91 Dudelange creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 115 away

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.14
F91 Dudelange
2.37

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.71
F91 Dudelange
1.10

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw
42%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach or F91 Dudelange
79%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
80%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
8%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
67%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
31%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
10%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
60%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
26%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.14 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
20%
level
21%
F91 Dudelange scores more
58%

F91 Dudelange at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blue Boys Muhlenbach host F91 Dudelange

May 17, 2020: Blue Boys Muhlenbach take on F91 Dudelange in National Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach host F91 Dudelange at Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.