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Blooming vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Blooming
Blooming
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
6/4/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Blooming62%
×Draw20%
Vaca Díez18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blooming
2.13
Vaca Díez
1.06

Blooming creates 101% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 16 away

creates per match

Blooming
1.81
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Blooming
1.13
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Blooming or draw
82%
Blooming or Vaca Díez
80%
Draw or Vaca Díez
38%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+
38%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals
88%
Blooming 2+ goals
63%
Blooming 3+ goals
35%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
65%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
29%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)
77%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 129 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Blooming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Blooming scores more
62%
level
20%
Vaca Díez scores more
18%

Blooming at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Blooming 3–1 Vaca Díez

Blooming beat Vaca Díez 3-1 in Primera División on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.