Blooming 4–0 San José: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

San José

12/29/2020

Primera División · Round 25Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Blooming60%

×Draw21%

San José19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchSan José

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.09

Blooming

2.10

San José

1.09

Blooming creates 93% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 54 away

1.81

creates per match

1.06

1.13

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Blooming

1.81

San José

1.06

allows per match

Blooming

1.13

San José

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

San José+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

San José →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

81%

Blooming or San José

79%

Draw or San José

40%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

37%

San José wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

88%

Blooming 2+ goals

62%

Blooming 3+ goals

35%

San José 1+ goals

66%

San José 2+ goals

30%

San José 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

76%

San José (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 129 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.10

San José attack 1.06 + Blooming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Blooming scores more

60%

level

21%

San José scores more

19%

Blooming at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff