Blooming 2–1 Nacional Potosí: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nacional Potosí

R. Hinojosa 44'

D. Bejarano 3'

S. Pena 74'

4/23/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Blooming51%

×Draw23%

Nacional Potosí26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.19

Blooming

1.77

Nacional Potosí

1.19

Blooming creates 49% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 131 away

1.81

creates per match

1.23

1.14

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Blooming

1.81

Nacional Potosí

1.23

allows per match

Blooming

1.14

Nacional Potosí

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

74%

Blooming or Nacional Potosí

77%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

49%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

28%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

83%

Blooming 2+ goals

53%

Blooming 3+ goals

26%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

70%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

33%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

66%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 127 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Blooming defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Blooming scores more

51%

level

23%

Nacional Potosí scores more

26%

Blooming at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. Hinojosa

Blooming · F

9.3

Match Events

3'

D. Bejarano↳ R. Hinojosa

29'

38'

40'

42'

44'

R. Hinojosa↳ R. Melgar

45+2'

Diego Hoyos

46'

A. Vasquez← J. Garces

46'

M. Ocampo← R. Melgar

46'

J. Rojas← M. Nunez

46'

S. Pena← J. Orellana

52'

Moisés VillarroelGoal cancelled

54'

Oscar Baldomar

57'

Matheo Ocampo

60'

J. Chura← C. Menacho

68'

Schneider PenaPenalty cancelled

74'

G. Centella← M. Villarroel

74'

S. Pena↳ L. Demiquel

77'

Roberto Hinojosa

85'

Roberto HinojosaRed card cancelled

86'

C. Abastoflor← D. Hoyos

86'

Y. Martinez← J. Arce Pari

86'

K. Medina← O. Baldomar

90+4'

Guilmar Centella

90'

R. Spenhay← R. Hinojosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BloomingNacional

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots8

6Corners2

19Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

10On Target4

4Off Target1

2Blocked3

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

373Total Passes375

286Accurate Passes283

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

19Fouls10

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2