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Blooming vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Blooming
Blooming
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
11/26/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 32Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blooming67%
×Draw18%
Libertad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blooming
2.32
Libertad
0.98

Blooming creates 137% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

creates per match

Blooming
1.81
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Blooming
1.13
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Blooming or draw
85%
Blooming or Libertad
82%
Draw or Libertad
33%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+
44%
Libertad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals
90%
Blooming 2+ goals
67%
Blooming 3+ goals
40%
Libertad 1+ goals
62%
Libertad 2+ goals
26%
Libertad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)
82%
Libertad (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 129 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.32

Libertad attack 0.83 + Blooming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Blooming scores more
67%
level
18%
Libertad scores more
15%

Blooming at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blooming vs Libertad

Libertad beat Blooming 1-0 in Primera División on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.