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Bloem Celtic vs Orlando Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
11/4/2020Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic35%
×Draw29%
Orlando Pirates36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.10
Orlando Pirates
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Orlando Pirates
1.26

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Orlando Pirates
0.83

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Orlando Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
64%
Bloem Celtic or Orlando Pirates
71%
Draw or Orlando Pirates
65%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
14%
Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
67%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
30%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
10%
Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
68%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
31%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
49%
Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
35%
level
29%
Orlando Pirates scores more
36%

Orlando Pirates at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 0–1 Orlando Pirates

Orlando Pirates beat Bloem Celtic 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.