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Bloem Celtic vs Highlands Park FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Highlands Park FC
Highlands Park FC
11/5/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bloem Celtic45%
×Draw28%
Highlands Park FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.29
Highlands Park FC
0.92

Bloem Celtic creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Highlands Park FC
0.83

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Highlands Park FC
1.20

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Highlands Park FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Highlands Park FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
73%
Bloem Celtic or Highlands Park FC
72%
Draw or Highlands Park FC
55%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
21%
Highlands Park FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
72%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
37%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
14%
Highlands Park FC 1+ goals
60%
Highlands Park FC 2+ goals
23%
Highlands Park FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
63%
Highlands Park FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Highlands Park FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Highlands Park FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Highlands Park FC attack 0.83 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
45%
level
28%
Highlands Park FC scores more
27%

Bloem Celtic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bloem Celtic vs Highlands Park FC

Bloem Celtic beat Highlands Park FC 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 5, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.