Bloem Celtic 3–0 Black Leopards: Result & Stats

Bloem Celtic

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Black Leopards

2/3/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 15Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium (Bloemfontein, FS)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic53%

×Draw25%

Black Leopards22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bloem CelticExpected goals in this matchBlack Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.94

Bloem Celtic

1.59

Black Leopards

0.94

Bloem Celtic creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

1.38

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Bloem Celtic

1.38

Black Leopards

0.87

allows per match

Bloem Celtic

1.00

Black Leopards

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Black Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw

78%

Bloem Celtic or Black Leopards

75%

Draw or Black Leopards

47%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

28%

Black Leopards wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

80%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

47%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

21%

Black Leopards 1+ goals

61%

Black Leopards 2+ goals

24%

Black Leopards 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

70%

Black Leopards (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more

53%

level

25%

Black Leopards scores more

22%

Bloem Celtic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 3–0 Black Leopards

Bloem Celtic beat Black Leopards 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium (Bloemfontein, FS).

Bloem Celtic vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier Soccer League: Bloem Celtic 3–0 Black Leopards