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Bloem Celtic vs Bidvest Wits — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Bidvest Wits
Bidvest Wits
3/15/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium (Bloemfontein, FS)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bloem Celtic34%
×Draw30%
Bidvest Wits36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.05
Bidvest Wits
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Bidvest Wits
1.17

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Bidvest Wits
0.73

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Bidvest Wits →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
64%
Bloem Celtic or Bidvest Wits
70%
Draw or Bidvest Wits
66%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
13%
Bidvest Wits wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
65%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
28%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
9%
Bidvest Wits 1+ goals
66%
Bidvest Wits 2+ goals
29%
Bidvest Wits 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
49%
Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
34%
level
30%
Bidvest Wits scores more
36%

Bidvest Wits at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bloem Celtic 2 – 4 Bidvest Wits

Bidvest Wits beat Bloem Celtic 4-2 in Premier Soccer League on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium (Bloemfontein, FS).