Blo-Wäiss Izeg 0–6 Victoria Rosport: Result & Stats

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

0 – 6

Victoria Rosport

10/3/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Albert Kongs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Blo-Wäiss Izeg5%

×Draw10%

Victoria Rosport85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blo-Wäiss IzegExpected goals in this matchVictoria Rosport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

3.19

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

0.69

Victoria Rosport

3.19

Victoria Rosport creates 362% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

0.00

creates per match

2.38

4.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

0.00

Victoria Rosport

2.38

allows per match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg

4.00

Victoria Rosport

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blo-Wäiss Izeg+0.00on par

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blo-Wäiss Izeg ↓

Victoria Rosport →

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–312%

0–49%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Blo-Wäiss Izeg or draw

15%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg or Victoria Rosport

90%

Draw or Victoria Rosport

95%

Winning margin

Blo-Wäiss Izeg wins by 2+

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 1+ goals

50%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 2+ goals

15%

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 3+ goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

96%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

82%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Blo-Wäiss Izeg (draw refunded)

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Blo-Wäiss Izeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg attack 0.00 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Victoria Rosport attack 2.38 + Blo-Wäiss Izeg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Blo-Wäiss Izeg scores more

level

10%

Victoria Rosport scores more

85%

Victoria Rosport at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff