Blo-Wäiss Izeg vs Union Titus Petange — Cup 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Blo-Wäiss Izeg4%
Union Titus Petange88%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Titus Petange creates 438% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over77
- Under23
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Blo-Wäiss Izeg ↓
Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Blo-Wäiss Izeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches
Union Titus Petange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Blo-Wäiss Izeg attack 0.00 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.65
Union Titus Petange attack 3.00 + Blo-Wäiss Izeg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 88%?"
Union Titus Petange at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 88% does not mean "Union Titus Petange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Blo-Wäiss Izeg host Union Titus Petange on Sunday, 2 October 2022 at 14:00. The match is part of the Cup 2020/2021 season.
Cup: Blo-Wäiss Izeg 0–2 Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange beat Blo-Wäiss Izeg 2-0 in Cup on October 2, 2022.
The match was played at Stade Albert Kongs in Itzig.