Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blo-Wäiss Izeg vs Marisca Mersch — Cup 2020

Blo-Wäiss Izeg
Blo-Wäiss Izeg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Albert Kongs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Blo-Wäiss Izeg8%
×Draw13%
Marisca Mersch79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blo-Wäiss Izeg
0.90
Marisca Mersch
3.05

Marisca Mersch creates 239% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg
0.00
Marisca Mersch
2.10

allows per match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg
4.00
Marisca Mersch
1.80

finishing

Blo-Wäiss Izeg+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blo-Wäiss Izeg ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Blo-Wäiss Izeg or draw
21%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg or Marisca Mersch
87%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
92%

Winning margin

Blo-Wäiss Izeg wins by 2+
2%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Blo-Wäiss Izeg 1+ goals
59%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg 2+ goals
23%
Blo-Wäiss Izeg 3+ goals
6%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
95%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
80%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Blo-Wäiss Izeg (draw refunded)
9%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blo-Wäiss Izeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blo-Wäiss Izeg attack 0.00 + Marisca Mersch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Marisca Mersch attack 2.10 + Blo-Wäiss Izeg defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Blo-Wäiss Izeg scores more
8%
level
13%
Marisca Mersch scores more
79%

Marisca Mersch at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Marisca Mersch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Blo-Wäiss Izeg 0–4 Marisca Mersch

Marisca Mersch beat Blo-Wäiss Izeg 4-0 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Albert Kongs in Itzig.