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Blessing vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
2 – 2
Vita Club
Vita Club
10/28/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Blessing32%
×Draw30%
Vita Club38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
0.97
Vita Club
1.08

Vita Club creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 93 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
62%
Blessing or Vita Club
70%
Draw or Vita Club
68%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
12%
Vita Club wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
62%
Blessing 2+ goals
25%
Blessing 3+ goals
7%
Vita Club 1+ goals
66%
Vita Club 2+ goals
29%
Vita Club 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
46%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blessing scores more
32%
level
30%
Vita Club scores more
38%

Vita Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blessing vs Vita Club

Blessing and Vita Club drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.