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Blessing vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
2/15/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Blessing26%
×Draw29%
TP Mazembe45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
0.86
TP Mazembe
1.23

TP Mazembe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 97 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
55%
Blessing or TP Mazembe
71%
Draw or TP Mazembe
74%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
9%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
58%
Blessing 2+ goals
21%
Blessing 3+ goals
6%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
71%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
35%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
37%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.86

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blessing scores more
26%
level
29%
TP Mazembe scores more
45%

TP Mazembe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Blessing 1–0 TP Mazembe

Blessing beat TP Mazembe 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 15, 2026.