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Blessing vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RCK
RCK
6/5/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Blessing52%
×Draw28%
RCK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
1.38
RCK
0.74

Blessing creates 86% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
RCK
0.65

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
RCK
1.56

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
80%
Blessing or RCK
72%
Draw or RCK
48%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
26%
RCK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
75%
Blessing 2+ goals
40%
Blessing 3+ goals
16%
RCK 1+ goals
52%
RCK 2+ goals
17%
RCK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
72%
RCK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

RCK attack 0.65 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Blessing scores more
52%
level
28%
RCK scores more
20%

Blessing at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Blessing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Blessing 1–0 RCK

Blessing beat RCK 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.