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Blauw Geel vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
CANC
13:30
Westlandia
Westlandia
2/21/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Blauw Geel58%
×Draw21%
Westlandia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blauw Geel
2.10
Westlandia
1.19

Blauw Geel creates 76% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 32 away

creates per match

Blauw Geel
1.96
Westlandia
1.09

allows per match

Blauw Geel
1.28
Westlandia
2.25

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par
Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

Westlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw
79%
Blauw Geel or Westlandia
79%
Draw or Westlandia
42%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+
35%
Westlandia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals
88%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
62%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
35%
Westlandia 1+ goals
70%
Westlandia 2+ goals
33%
Westlandia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
73%
Westlandia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.10

Westlandia attack 1.09 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Blauw Geel scores more
58%
level
21%
Westlandia scores more
21%

Blauw Geel at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blauw Geel host Westlandia

February 21, 2021: Blauw Geel take on Westlandia in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.