Blauw Geel 3–1 TOGB: Result & Stats

Blauw Geel

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TOGB

12/17/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 17Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Blauw Geel50%

×Draw22%

TOGB27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blauw GeelExpected goals in this matchTOGB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.34

Blauw Geel

1.90

TOGB

1.34

Blauw Geel creates 42% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

1.96

creates per match

1.40

1.28

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Blauw Geel

1.96

TOGB

1.40

allows per match

Blauw Geel

1.28

TOGB

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

TOGB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

TOGB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw

73%

Blauw Geel or TOGB

78%

Draw or TOGB

50%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

28%

TOGB wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

85%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

56%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

29%

TOGB 1+ goals

74%

TOGB 2+ goals

39%

TOGB 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

65%

TOGB (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

TOGB away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + TOGB defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.90

TOGB attack 1.40 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blauw Geel scores more

50%

level

22%

TOGB scores more

27%

Blauw Geel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff