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Blauw Geel vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
FT
2 – 3
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
10/17/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 9Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Blauw Geel44%
×Draw23%
OFC Oostzaan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blauw Geel
1.79
OFC Oostzaan
1.51

Blauw Geel creates 19% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

creates per match

Blauw Geel
1.96
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

Blauw Geel
1.28
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw
67%
Blauw Geel or OFC Oostzaan
77%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
56%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+
24%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals
83%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
53%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
26%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
78%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
44%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
58%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blauw Geel scores more
44%
level
23%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
33%

Blauw Geel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blauw Geel vs OFC Oostzaan

OFC Oostzaan beat Blauw Geel 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark in Veghel.