Blauw Geel 4–2 GVV Unitas: Result & Stats

Blauw Geel

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

GVV Unitas

5/4/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 31Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Blauw Geel55%

×Draw22%

GVV Unitas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blauw GeelExpected goals in this matchGVV Unitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.25

Blauw Geel

2.01

GVV Unitas

1.25

Blauw Geel creates 61% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 54 away

1.96

creates per match

1.22

1.28

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Blauw Geel

1.96

GVV Unitas

1.22

allows per match

Blauw Geel

1.28

GVV Unitas

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

GVV Unitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw

76%

Blauw Geel or GVV Unitas

78%

Draw or GVV Unitas

45%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

32%

GVV Unitas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

87%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

59%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

32%

GVV Unitas 1+ goals

71%

GVV Unitas 2+ goals

36%

GVV Unitas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

70%

GVV Unitas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.01

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Blauw Geel scores more

55%

level

22%

GVV Unitas scores more

24%

Blauw Geel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff