Blauw Geel 2–3 Gemert: Result & Stats

Blauw Geel

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Gemert

11/5/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 11Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Blauw Geel47%

×Draw22%

Gemert31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blauw GeelExpected goals in this matchGemert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.52

Blauw Geel

1.93

Gemert

1.52

Blauw Geel creates 27% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

1.96

creates per match

1.75

1.28

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Blauw Geel

1.96

Gemert

1.75

allows per match

Blauw Geel

1.28

Gemert

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Gemert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

Gemert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw

69%

Blauw Geel or Gemert

78%

Draw or Gemert

53%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

26%

Gemert wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

85%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

57%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

30%

Gemert 1+ goals

78%

Gemert 2+ goals

45%

Gemert 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

61%

Gemert (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

Gemert away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + Gemert defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.93

Gemert attack 1.75 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blauw Geel scores more

47%

level

22%

Gemert scores more

31%

Blauw Geel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff