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Blauw Geel vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
AWC
AWC
8/27/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 2Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Blauw Geel62%
×Draw20%
AWC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blauw Geel
2.10
AWC
1.02

Blauw Geel creates 106% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Blauw Geel
1.96
AWC
0.76

allows per match

Blauw Geel
1.28
AWC
2.24

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw
82%
Blauw Geel or AWC
80%
Draw or AWC
38%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+
38%
AWC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals
88%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
62%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
35%
AWC 1+ goals
64%
AWC 2+ goals
27%
AWC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
78%
AWC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

AWC away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + AWC defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.10

AWC attack 0.76 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Blauw Geel scores more
62%
level
20%
AWC scores more
18%

Blauw Geel at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blauw Geel vs AWC

Blauw Geel and AWC drew 3-3 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Prins Willem Alexander Sportpark in Veghel.