Blaublitz Akita 0–2 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Blaublitz Akita

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yokohama FC

4/28/2024

J2 League · Round 12Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Blaublitz Akita28%

×Draw29%

Yokohama FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blaublitz AkitaExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.25

Blaublitz Akita

0.93

Yokohama FC

1.25

Yokohama FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 86 away

0.85

creates per match

1.41

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita

0.85

Yokohama FC

1.41

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

Yokohama FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw

56%

Blaublitz Akita or Yokohama FC

71%

Draw or Yokohama FC

72%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

10%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

61%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

24%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

7%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

71%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

36%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

39%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more

28%

level

29%

Yokohama FC scores more

44%

Yokohama FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff