Blaublitz Akita 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Blaublitz Akita

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

8/27/2023

J2 League · Round 32Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Blaublitz Akita28%

×Draw27%

Shimizu S-pulse45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blaublitz AkitaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.35

Blaublitz Akita

1.00

Shimizu S-pulse

1.35

Shimizu S-pulse creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 43 away

0.85

creates per match

1.63

1.08

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita

0.85

Shimizu S-pulse

1.63

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

Shimizu S-pulse

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw

55%

Blaublitz Akita or Shimizu S-pulse

73%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

72%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

10%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

63%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

26%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

8%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

39%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

38%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more

28%

level

27%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

45%

Shimizu S-pulse at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff