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Blaublitz Akita vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
7/2/2022J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Blaublitz Akita39%
×Draw29%
Renofa Yamaguchi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blaublitz Akita
1.18
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.03

Blaublitz Akita creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 168 away

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita
0.85
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita
1.08
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw
68%
Blaublitz Akita or Renofa Yamaguchi
71%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
61%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
17%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
69%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
33%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
12%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
64%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
28%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
55%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more
39%
level
29%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
32%

Blaublitz Akita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blaublitz Akita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Blaublitz Akita 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Blaublitz Akita 1-0 in J2 League on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Soyu Stadium in Akita.