Blaublitz Akita 0–0 Ehime FC: Result & Stats

Blaublitz Akita

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ehime FC

8/25/2024

J2 League · Round 28Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Blaublitz Akita41%

×Draw28%

Ehime FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blaublitz AkitaExpected goals in this matchEhime FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.03

Blaublitz Akita

1.24

Ehime FC

1.03

Blaublitz Akita creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 123 away

0.85

creates per match

0.98

1.08

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita

0.85

Ehime FC

0.98

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

Ehime FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Ehime FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw

69%

Blaublitz Akita or Ehime FC

72%

Draw or Ehime FC

59%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

18%

Ehime FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

71%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

35%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

13%

Ehime FC 1+ goals

64%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

28%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

57%

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more

41%

level

28%

Ehime FC scores more

31%

Blaublitz Akita at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blaublitz Akita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff