Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1–2 Union Sandersdorf

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Union Sandersdorf

3/29/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Sportplatz Zorbau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau35%

×Draw23%

Union Sandersdorf42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß ZorbauExpected goals in this matchUnion Sandersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.71

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.56

Union Sandersdorf

1.71

Union Sandersdorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 81 away

1.53

creates per match

1.19

2.23

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.53

Union Sandersdorf

1.19

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.23

Union Sandersdorf

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Zorbau ↓

Union Sandersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or draw

58%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or Union Sandersdorf

77%

Draw or Union Sandersdorf

65%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

17%

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

79%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

46%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

21%

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals

82%

Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals

51%

Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

46%

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.23 · 53 matches

Union Sandersdorf away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.53 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.19 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

35%

level

23%

Union Sandersdorf scores more

42%

Union Sandersdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Sandersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff