Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3–0 Einheit Wernigerode

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Einheit Wernigerode

10/1/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 7Sportplatz Zorbau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau40%

×Draw22%

Einheit Wernigerode38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß ZorbauExpected goals in this matchEinheit Wernigerode

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.81

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.87

Einheit Wernigerode

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 77 away

1.53

creates per match

1.39

2.23

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.53

Einheit Wernigerode

1.39

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.23

Einheit Wernigerode

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Zorbau ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or draw

62%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or Einheit Wernigerode

78%

Draw or Einheit Wernigerode

60%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

21%

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

85%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

56%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

29%

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

84%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

54%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

52%

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.23 · 53 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.53 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

40%

level

22%

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

38%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Zorbau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff