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Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Meiningen — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
FT
2 – 2
Meiningen
Meiningen
9/11/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 11Waldstadion Gisingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch47%
×Draw21%
Meiningen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
2.07
Meiningen
1.66

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
1.54
Meiningen
1.40

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
1.92
Meiningen
2.60

finishing

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch+0.00on par
Meiningen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch ↓

Meiningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or draw
69%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or Meiningen
79%
Draw or Meiningen
53%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch wins by 2+
27%
Meiningen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1+ goals
87%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2+ goals
61%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 3+ goals
34%
Meiningen 1+ goals
81%
Meiningen 2+ goals
49%
Meiningen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch (draw refunded)
60%
Meiningen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Meiningen away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch attack 1.54 + Meiningen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.07

Meiningen attack 1.40 + Blau-Weiß Feldkirch defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch scores more
47%
level
21%
Meiningen scores more
31%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Feldkirch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Meiningen

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch and Meiningen drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Waldstadion Gisingen in Feldkirch.