Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Fussach

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

CANC

22:00

Fussach

5/8/2020

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 25Waldstadion Gisingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch42%

×Draw22%

Fussach36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß FeldkirchExpected goals in this matchFussach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.69

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.83

Fussach

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 47 away

1.54

creates per match

1.47

1.92

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.54

Fussach

1.47

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.92

Fussach

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch+0.00on par

Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch ↓

Fussach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or draw

64%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or Fussach

78%

Draw or Fussach

58%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch wins by 2+

22%

Fussach wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1+ goals

84%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2+ goals

54%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 3+ goals

28%

Fussach 1+ goals

82%

Fussach 2+ goals

50%

Fussach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch (draw refunded)

54%

Fussach (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch attack 1.54 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fussach attack 1.47 + Blau-Weiß Feldkirch defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch scores more

42%

level

22%

Fussach scores more

36%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Feldkirch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch host Fussach

May 8, 2020: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch take on Fussach in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch host Fussach at Waldstadion Gisingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch host Fussach