Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2–1 Bezau: Result & Stats

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

FT

2 – 1

Bezau

10/18/2020

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 13Waldstadion Gisingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch47%

×Draw22%

Bezau31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß FeldkirchExpected goals in this matchBezau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.61

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

2.00

Bezau

1.61

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch creates 24% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

1.54

creates per match

1.30

1.92

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.54

Bezau

1.30

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.92

Bezau

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch+0.00on par

Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch ↓

Bezau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or draw

69%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or Bezau

78%

Draw or Bezau

53%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch wins by 2+

27%

Bezau wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1+ goals

86%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2+ goals

59%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 3+ goals

32%

Bezau 1+ goals

80%

Bezau 2+ goals

48%

Bezau 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch (draw refunded)

60%

Bezau (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch attack 1.54 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.00

Bezau attack 1.30 + Blau-Weiß Feldkirch defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch scores more

47%

level

22%

Bezau scores more

31%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Feldkirch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff