Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 6–1 Victoria Seelow

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Victoria Seelow

2/26/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 18Kunstrasenplatz Rathausstraße KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin71%

×Draw17%

Victoria Seelow12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß 90 BerlinExpected goals in this matchVictoria Seelow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.93

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

2.52

Victoria Seelow

0.93

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin creates 171% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

2.27

creates per match

0.89

0.97

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

2.27

Victoria Seelow

0.89

allows per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin

0.97

Victoria Seelow

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin+0.00on par

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin ↓

Victoria Seelow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or draw

88%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or Victoria Seelow

83%

Draw or Victoria Seelow

29%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin wins by 2+

49%

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 1+ goals

92%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2+ goals

71%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 3+ goals

45%

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals

61%

Victoria Seelow 2+ goals

24%

Victoria Seelow 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin (draw refunded)

86%

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 2.27 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.52

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin scores more

71%

level

17%

Victoria Seelow scores more

12%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff