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Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
5/28/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Volksparkstadion Mariendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin44%
×Draw24%
Torgelower SV Greif33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
1.69
Torgelower SV Greif
1.43

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
2.27
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
0.97
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or draw
67%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or Torgelower SV Greif
76%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
56%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin wins by 2+
23%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 1+ goals
82%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2+ goals
50%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 3+ goals
24%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
76%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
42%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin (draw refunded)
57%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 2.27 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin scores more
44%
level
24%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
33%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 0–2 Torgelower SV Greif

Torgelower SV Greif beat Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion Mariendorf in Berlin.