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Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin vs Strausberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
CANC
12:00
Strausberg
Strausberg
12/5/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Volksparkstadion Mariendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin72%
×Draw18%
Strausberg11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
2.26
Strausberg
0.73

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin creates 210% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 4 away

creates per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
2.27
Strausberg
0.50

allows per match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin
0.97
Strausberg
2.25

finishing

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin+0.00on par
Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin ↓

Strausberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or draw
89%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin or Strausberg
82%
Draw or Strausberg
28%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin wins by 2+
48%
Strausberg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 1+ goals
89%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 2+ goals
66%
Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin 3+ goals
39%
Strausberg 1+ goals
52%
Strausberg 2+ goals
17%
Strausberg 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin (draw refunded)
87%
Strausberg (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin attack 2.27 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.26

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin scores more
72%
level
18%
Strausberg scores more
11%

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin vs Strausberg — Match Preview

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin face Strausberg on December 5, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blau-Weiß 90 Berlin host Strausberg at Volksparkstadion Mariendorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.