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Blansko vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Blansko
Blansko
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
T. Chyla 81'
M. Pecuch 62'
F. Adamec 20'
L. Musil 53'
3/13/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Stadion na Údolní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Blansko62%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blansko
2.33
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.19

Blansko creates 96% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 23 away

creates per match

Blansko
1.91
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Blansko
1.67
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Blansko or draw
82%
Blansko or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
38%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+
40%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals
90%
Blansko 2+ goals
67%
Blansko 3+ goals
41%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
70%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
33%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)
77%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.33

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Blansko scores more
62%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
18%

Blansko at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Adamec
52'
D. Blazik
53'
L. Musil
57'
L. Musil
62'
M. Pecuch
63'
F. Shudeiwa← F. Shudeiwa
69'
T. Cerny← T. Cerny
69'
M. Stencl← M. Stencl
75'
M. Lokvenc← M. Lokvenc
81'
T. Chyla
83'
L. Musil← K. Crhan
84'
M. Zubek← M. Zubek
84'
M. Walter← M. Walter
90'
A. Fiala← A. Fiala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blansko vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Blansko beat Vysočina Jihlava II 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 13, 2022.

Goals: F. Adamec (20'), L. Musil (53'), M. Pecuch (62'), T. Chyla (81').

The match was played at Stadion na Údolní in Blansko.