Blansko 3–1 Vyškov: Result & Stats | 3. liga - MSFL

Blansko

FT

3 – 1

Vyškov

8/4/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 1Stadion na Údolní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Blansko41%

×Draw24%

Vyškov35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlanskoExpected goals in this matchVyškov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.46

Blansko

1.61

Vyškov

1.46

Blansko creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

1.91

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Blansko

1.91

Vyškov

1.25

allows per match

Blansko

1.67

Vyškov

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par

Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Vyškov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blansko or draw

65%

Blansko or Vyškov

76%

Draw or Vyškov

59%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+

21%

Vyškov wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals

80%

Blansko 2+ goals

48%

Blansko 3+ goals

22%

Vyškov 1+ goals

77%

Vyškov 2+ goals

43%

Vyškov 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)

54%

Vyškov (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blansko scores more

41%

level

24%

Vyškov scores more

35%

Blansko at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff