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Blansko vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Blansko
Blansko
CANC
15:00
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
5/17/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 27Stadion na Údolní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Blansko33%
×Draw23%
Odra Petřkovice44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blansko
1.50
Odra Petřkovice
1.75

Odra Petřkovice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 12 away

creates per match

Blansko
1.91
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Blansko
1.67
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Blansko or draw
56%
Blansko or Odra Petřkovice
77%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
67%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+
16%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals
78%
Blansko 2+ goals
44%
Blansko 3+ goals
19%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
83%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
52%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)
43%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blansko scores more
33%
level
23%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
44%

Odra Petřkovice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blansko vs Odra Petřkovice — Match Preview

Blansko face Odra Petřkovice on May 17, 2020 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blansko host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion na Údolní.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.