Blansko 3–1 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Blansko

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Karviná II

3/28/2026

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 21Stadion na Udolni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Blansko44%

×Draw22%

Karviná II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlanskoExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.59

Blansko

1.84

Karviná II

1.59

Blansko creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

1.91

creates per match

1.51

1.67

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Blansko

1.91

Karviná II

1.51

allows per match

Blansko

1.67

Karviná II

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Blansko or draw

66%

Blansko or Karviná II

78%

Draw or Karviná II

56%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+

24%

Karviná II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals

84%

Blansko 2+ goals

55%

Blansko 3+ goals

28%

Karviná II 1+ goals

80%

Karviná II 2+ goals

47%

Karviná II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)

57%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blansko scores more

44%

level

22%

Karviná II scores more

34%

Blansko at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff