Blagnac 2–3 Onet-le-Château: Result & Stats

Blagnac

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Onet-le-Château

R. Roldan 75'

T. Mirouze 45+2'

A. Deplace 90+2', 72'

G. Assati 52'

11/9/2024

League #461 · Group A - 8Complexe sportif d'Andromède

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blagnac30%

×Draw25%

Onet-le-Château45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlagnacExpected goals in this matchOnet-le-Château

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.58

Blagnac

1.25

Onet-le-Château

1.58

Onet-le-Château creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Blagnac

1.00

Onet-le-Château

1.50

allows per match

Blagnac

1.67

Onet-le-Château

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blagnac+0.00on par

Onet-le-Château+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blagnac ↓

Onet-le-Château →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Blagnac or draw

55%

Blagnac or Onet-le-Château

75%

Draw or Onet-le-Château

70%

Winning margin

Blagnac wins by 2+

13%

Onet-le-Château wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Blagnac 1+ goals

71%

Blagnac 2+ goals

36%

Blagnac 3+ goals

13%

Onet-le-Château 1+ goals

79%

Onet-le-Château 2+ goals

47%

Onet-le-Château 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Blagnac (draw refunded)

40%

Onet-le-Château (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blagnac at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Onet-le-Château away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blagnac attack 1.00 + Onet-le-Château defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Onet-le-Château attack 1.50 + Blagnac defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blagnac scores more

30%

level

25%

Onet-le-Château scores more

45%

Onet-le-Château at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Onet-le-Château will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

E. Tarayre← L. Malrieu

37'

C. Boudjema← Y. Tairi

37'

D. Quenet← B. Khelifi

45'

S. Abbani← A. Boujamaa

45+2'

52'

72'

75'

78'

82'

A. Aouladchaib← T. Mirouze

82'

R. Vaysse← D. Quenet

84'

A. Legroux← G. Assati

90+2'

A. Deplace

Blagnac

Onet-le-Château

1

Mohimont

4

Bubote

2

Soulatges

9

▼

5

6

10

7

⚽2

Deplace

8

▼

Malrieu

3

Prunera

11

⚽

▼

Assati

1

Alla

2

Sow

3

⚽

Roldan

4

Gauthier

6

Santistev

10

▼

Tairi

7

Boriés

8

▼

Boujamaa

5

Husson

11

⚽

▼

Mirouze

9

▼

Khelifi

Manager: A. Bénédet

37'▲C. Boudjema←▼Y. Tairi

37'▲D. Quenet←▼B. Khelifi

45'▲S. Abbani←▼A. Boujamaa

82'▲A. Aouladchaib←▼T. Mirouze

82'▲R. Vaysse←▼D. Quenet

Blagnac substitutes

13Boudjema16Quenet12Abbani14Aouladchaib15Vaysse

Manager: Y. Boscus

33'▲E. Tarayre←▼L. Malrieu

78'▲Deiblydy←▼D. Cueye

84'▲A. Legroux←▼G. Assati

Onet-le-Château substitutes

15Tarayre14Deiblydy12Legroux13Bou16Gateau