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Blacktown Spartans vs Central Coast United — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
2 – 1
Central Coast United
Central Coast United
3/4/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5Blacktown Football Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Blacktown Spartans58%
×Draw19%
Central Coast United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
2.41
Central Coast United
1.48

Blacktown Spartans creates 63% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Central Coast United
1.40

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Central Coast United
2.87

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Central Coast United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
77%
Blacktown Spartans or Central Coast United
81%
Draw or Central Coast United
42%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
37%
Central Coast United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
91%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
69%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
43%
Central Coast United 1+ goals
77%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
43%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
71%
Central Coast United (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.41

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
58%
level
19%
Central Coast United scores more
23%

Blacktown Spartans at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Blacktown Spartans 2–1 Central Coast United

Blacktown Spartans beat Central Coast United 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Blacktown Football Park 1 in Sydney.