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Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Blacktown City
Blacktown City
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
J. Smylie 41' (pen), 10'
H. Aoyama 7'
M. Scarella 4' (OG)
Z. Sapsford 79'
J. Kucharski 69'
4/17/2022New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 7Blacktown City Sports Centre Main

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Blacktown City50%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC U2328%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown City
1.87
Sydney FC U23
1.35

Blacktown City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 94 away

creates per match

Blacktown City
1.92
Sydney FC U23
1.56

allows per match

Blacktown City
1.15
Sydney FC U23
1.82

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par
Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Sydney FC U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw
72%
Blacktown City or Sydney FC U23
77%
Draw or Sydney FC U23
50%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+
28%
Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals
85%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
56%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
29%
Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
74%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
39%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)
64%
Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blacktown City scores more
50%
level
23%
Sydney FC U23 scores more
28%

Blacktown City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. ScarellaOwn goal
7'
H. Aoyama
10'
J. Smylie
41'
J. SmyliePenalty
69'
J. Kucharski
79'
Z. Sapsford

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blacktown City 4 – 2 Sydney FC U23

Blacktown City beat Sydney FC U23 4-2 in New South Wales NPL on April 17, 2022.

Goals: M. Scarella (4' o.g.), H. Aoyama (7'), J. Smylie (10', 41' pen), J. Kucharski (69'), Z. Sapsford (79').

The match was played at Blacktown City Sports Centre Main in Blacktown.