Blacktown City 3–0 Sydney FC U23: Result & Stats

Blacktown City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sydney FC U23

S. Bangura 90'

M. Shabow 59'

T. Major 48'

4/25/2021

New South Wales NPL · Round 9Gabbie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Blacktown City50%

×Draw23%

Sydney FC U2328%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blacktown CityExpected goals in this matchSydney FC U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.35

Blacktown City

1.87

Sydney FC U23

1.35

Blacktown City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 94 away

1.92

creates per match

1.56

1.15

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Blacktown City

1.92

Sydney FC U23

1.56

allows per match

Blacktown City

1.15

Sydney FC U23

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Sydney FC U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw

72%

Blacktown City or Sydney FC U23

77%

Draw or Sydney FC U23

50%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+

28%

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals

85%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

56%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

29%

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

74%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

39%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

64%

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Sydney FC U23 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.82 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.56 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blacktown City scores more

50%

level

23%

Sydney FC U23 scores more

28%

Blacktown City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

R. De Silva← D. Askew

48'

T. Major

59'

M. Shabow↳ C. Mendy

61'

A. Segecic← J. Swibel

72'

S. Bangura← C. Mendy

72'

C. De Oliveira← J. OBrien

72'

O. Priestman← C. Hollman

72'

C. Taylor← J. Trenkoski

90'

S. Bangura↳ T. Major

Blacktown

Sydney

30

5

3

2

17

▼

16

7

8

14

13

▼

Hollman

27

▼

1

3

6

4

21

A

▼

Mendy

10

⚽

Shabow

19

Berry

17

▼

Askew

5

Lynch

8

▼

O'Brien

7

⚽A

Major

Manager: M. Crittenden

35'▲R. De Silva←▼D. Askew

72'▲S. Bangura←▼C. Mendy

72'▲C. De Oliveira←▼J. OBrien

Blacktown City substitutes

11Silva18Bangura22Oliveira14Brown20Niski

Manager: J. van Weeren

61'▲A. Segecic←▼J. Swibel

72'▲O. Priestman←▼C. Hollman

72'▲C. Taylor←▼J. Trenkoski

Sydney FC U23 substitutes

11Segecic18Priestman33Taylor9Saracino1Kaye4Grimaldi

Match Recap: Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23

Blacktown City beat Sydney FC U23 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on April 25, 2021.

Goals: T. Major (48'), M. Shabow (59'), S. Bangura (90').

The match was played at Gabbie Stadium in Blacktown.

Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blacktown City vs Sydney FC U23