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Blacktown City vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

Blacktown City
Blacktown City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
3/2/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Blacktown City50%
×Draw23%
Sutherland Sharks26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown City
1.78
Sutherland Sharks
1.22

Blacktown City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 91 away

creates per match

Blacktown City
1.92
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

Blacktown City
1.15
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw
74%
Blacktown City or Sutherland Sharks
77%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
50%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+
28%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals
83%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
53%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
26%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
70%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
34%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)
66%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blacktown City scores more
50%
level
23%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
26%

Blacktown City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Blacktown City 3–2 Sutherland Sharks

Blacktown City beat Sutherland Sharks 3-2 in New South Wales NPL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.